Rabobank economists expect house prices to fall by 3.1%. Due to the ongoing increase in mortgage interest rates, the Dutch housing market is cooling down quicker than expected.
The mortgage interest rates are rising at an even faster pace than expected, which is why Rabobank are lowering their expectations for house prices and sales. House prices this year are expected to be 13.7% higher than in 2021, however, prices will fall by 3.1% in 203 and 2% in 2024. By the end of 2024, prices are expected to be 7.4% lower than they currently are. This would roughly correspond to the levels from Q1 of 2021.
Due to the fact that homeowners pay off more often, and due to the sharp increase in house prices in recent years, homeowners have built up a lot of equity. As a result, they will agree quicker to a lower price sale. Rabobank therefore expects only a limited decrease in the number of home sales, from 188,000 in 2022 to around 179,000 in 2023. It is estimated that this will recover to 184,000 transactions in 2024.
Source: Rabobank
7 november 2022
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